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UFC 87 PREVIEW: Fight analysis, predictions, odds for Lesnar vs. Herring, GSP vs. Fitch, Huerta vs. Florian
Aug 9, 2008 - 1:18:51 AM |
By Matt Pelkey, MMATorch contributor
On Saturday, the UFC makes it's long-awaited, highly-anticipated (although admittedly not as long-awaited or as highly anticipated as their Atlanta debut in September, but I digress) debut in Minneapolis with UFC 87: Seek and Destroy. I'm not gonna sugarcoat it, this is a three fight card. But my goodness, what a three fights it is. This show will likely determine BJ Penn's next opponent, the next #1 contender for the lightweight title (and no, those aren't necessarily the same person. In fact its more likely they're not), and the future of Brock Lesnar in the heavyweight division. How's that for some ramifications? After that, however, there's a significant drop-off in terms of intriguing and important fights. Don't shed a tear for Dana White though. I'm guessing GSP, Roger Huerta, and Brock Lesnar will be PLENTY to sell a PPV. But enough with the intro, let's break down some fights!
RYAN THOMAS (+225) vs. BEN SAUNDERS (-285)
You know how this goes. It's a TUF fighter, who isn't necessarily a top-level fighter, but does have some Octagon experience against a lifetime minor-leaguer who has paid his dues, but is making his UFC debut. What does that usually equal? Well, a coin flip. I don't know much about Thomas, and Saunders is one of the few fighters from that TUF season that I actually thought had some potential. Thomas hasn't defeated anyone of note, but does sport a nice 9-1 record. The line tells me that he's being brought in to lose, and I tend to trust Vegas (or wherever these lines came from). There. Convinced myself.
Prediction: Saunders by decision
STEVE BRUNO (+265) VS. CHRIS WILSON (-325)
I honestly don't have much to say about his fight. I know nothing about Bruno. I know a little about Wilson, but the only time I saw him was in a lackluster decision loss to Jon Fitch, which I guess tells me something. He holds wins over Derrick Noble, Rory Markham, and Jay Hieron in the IFL. Plus, that's a big line.
Prediction: Wilson by submission in round 2
JON JONES (+190) VS. ANDRE GUSMAO (-240)
This is actually an intriguing fight. Combined, the fighters are 10-0 (both sporting 5-0 records) and have finished nine of their ten fights. Gusmao comes from the bigger organization in the IFL, but his competition wasn't exactly A-level. Gusmao is the more highly touted prospect, but the line isn't as lopsided as I would've expected. I'm expecting fireworks as this is a big time opportunity for both men. Who lands the fight-ending strike first? My gut says Gusmao, but there has to be upsets somewhere, so I'm calling one here.
Prediction: Jones by TKO in round 1
DAN EVENSEN (+400) VS. CHEICK KONGO (-550)
Well this is the biggest line of the night, but does Kongo really deserve that kind of respect? I still think a BJJ blue belt could submit him within two minutes. I seriously can't find ANYTHING on Evenson, so I'm not gonna predict an upset here. Clearly the UFC still has high hopes for Kongo, and they'd like to build him up to an eventual title shot. Sure wish I could find something on Evenson. *sigh*
Prediction: Kongo by TKO in round 1
TAMDAN MCCRORY (+115) VS. LUKE CUMMO (-145)
I can't lie. Cummo has been a guilty pleasure of mine since he was on the second season of TUF. I really wish he could string together a couple wins so we could see him against some better competition; maybe on the main card of an Ultimate Fight Night someday? The guy just doesn't look like a fighter, but he's tough as nails. He's like a poor man's Kenny Florian. McCrory is 1-1 in the UFC, winning his debut against Pete Spratt and losing the last time out to a debuting Akihiro Gono. He's also never gone to a decision in his nine professional fights, and his fight with Gono was his first loss. Should be an exciting fight, and Cummo is, gasp, a favorite. I'm taking the chalk tonight.
Prediction: Cummo by TKO in round 3 (in my sleeper pick for FOTN)
JASON MACDONALD (+205) VS. DEMIAN MAIA (-255)
This might be a bad match-up for Jason McDonald. He's made a living in the UFC by submitting strikers who weren't ready for his better-than-solid ground game. Unfortunately, he's never exactly impressed me on the feet. Maia, however, is a top-level submission fighter, and if McDonald can't keep this on the feet and grind out a boring decision, he's gonna end up on the losing end. Look for Maia to eat some jabs for a round and a half before eventually getting it down to the ground and working quickly for a submission late in the round.
Prediction: Maia by submission in round 2
ROB EMERSON (+275) VS. MANNY GAMBURYAN (-345)
This seems like the easiest fight of the night to predict. Manny is a pitbull, pure and simple. Emerson is a tough guy, but his striking is only above-average, while his ground game is severely lacking. He'll be able to hold of submissions for a round or so, but eventually Manny will wear him down and break his will. This will be a punishing, dominating performance Gamburyan, and you'll feel bad for Emerson by the time its over.
Prediction: Gamburyan by submission in round 3
ROGER HUERTA (+115) VS. KENNY FLORIAN (-145)
Finally, the first of the "Big 3". It'll be a disappointment if its not fight of the night. The winner will be next in line for a title shot. Will one of these men prove to be a paper tiger? In Huerta's only real test, he was clearly losing on the scorecards to Clay Guida before landing a big knee that changed the course of the fight. But hey, maybe that's just what the real champions do. They find a way to win. If he can stop Kenny Florian, you'll be able to clearly see me on the Roger Huerta Bandwagon. Kenny Florian has looked fantastic since losing his first title shot by decision to Sean Sherk, finishing all four of his fights since then. He's fought better competition than Huerta, but not anyone of Huerta's caliber. This is prove it time for both men. Florian has more on the line here as he's a little older and has already lost one title fight. Huerta can afford a loss because he's still young and can be built back up quickly. I'm now just stalling because I don't know who to pick. Time for my trusty coin. And...
Prediction: Florian by decision
HEATH HERRING (+205) VS. BROCK LESNAR (-255)
When Lesnar makes his entrance on Saturday, don't be confused by the ovation, this isn't the main event. Lesnar will be the hometown hero, and he better deliver if he hopes to be a huge star in the UFC. Don't get me wrong, he can still draw money even if he never wins, but he'll risk becoming a Kimbo Slice-like sideshow attraction, and he and the UFC would lose a lot of credibility. I think this is an excellent second test for him. Herring has been through the wars and is probably secretly loving his underdog status here. Will Lesnar prove he's learned from his mistakes? Herring certainly doesn't possess the submission acumen as Frank Mir, but he's no slouch on the ground either. I'm expecting Herring to try to keep this standing, at least if he hopes to leave with his face intact. Lesnar is a freakish athlete with wrestling ability unlike anything Herring has ever seen. He'll be cautious early, trying to avoid repeating the past, but eventually he'll get comfortable and get the takedown. From there it should be elementary. If Jake O'Brian can hold Herring down for three rounds, Lesnar can certainly hold him down long enough to punish him into submission.
Prediction: Lesnar by TKO in round 2
JON FITCH (+280) VS. GEORGES ST. PIERRE (-350)
It's funny: this is one of the dream fights out there for formal fans like myself (I've trademarked that term, just so you know), but it seems to be an afterthought with Herring-Lesnar and even Huerta-Florian on the same card. Make no mistake, this is the main event. If GSP wins, it'll be another notch on his "best pound-for-pound" belt, and will likely set up a rematch with BJ Penn in December. If Fitch wins, he'll likely either be facing an immediate rematch with GSP, or he'll fight the winner of Thiago Alves-Diego Sanchez, while BJ Penn will probably stick around at 155 and take on the Huerta-Florian winner. Got that? As for the fight itself, I don't really see how Fitch wins. His only hope is that GSP will be looking past him to the showdown with Penn, but I can't see that happening. Fitch is WAY better than Matt Serra, and GSP learned his lesson in that fight. GSP has a HUGE advantage on the feet, is the best practical wrestler in MMA, and there's no way Fitch submits him. Fitch's gameplan is generally to grind his opponents down and win a decision if all else fails. There's no way he wins a decision against St. Pierre. His only hope is to land a big shot early and capitalize, ala Matt Serra. But that's just not his style. In all likelihood, Fitch is the second best 170lb.'er in the world, but as we all know, MMA is all about match-ups. Well this is a terrible match-up for him. And that's all I have to say about that.
Prediction: St. Pierre by TKO in round 3
Well there you have it. I would be absolutely shocked if this event doesn't leave you with a feeling that you got your money's worth. Now how about some fake money picks...
$200 on Jon Jones
$200 on Steve Bruno
$200 on Heath Herring
$200 on Jon Fitch (he's too good of a fighter with too good of odds to not put a little money on him)
$100 on Dan Evenson
$100 on Rob Emerson
Don't forget to get your picks in before Saturday. We've had a good early response, but I want MORE! Again, email me your picks at matt6buckeye@hotmail.com or head on over to the forum and let your voice be heard. Good luck to everyone on their picks!
FOR MUCH MORE MMA COVERAGE EVERY DAY - INCLUDING UFC 87 RESULTS AND FEATURES - CHECK OUT MMATORCH.COM... Now Featuring Jamie Penick's daily MMATorch Audio Update podcast.
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