NXT and AEW battle tonight with viewership likely to be very close, our poll gives conflicting indicators

Last week’s NXT show on USA Network averaged 857,000 viewers. The next night, AEW Dynamite drew 800,000 viewers. This week, Dynamite moves to Tuesday night and goes head-to-head with NXT. Both companies are upping their games to try to win this battle.

WWE is sending John Cena, Asuka, Paul Heyman, and Cody Rhodes, while hinting at an Undertaker appearance. The show’s main event will feature Carmella Hayes vs. Bron Breakker plus Roxanne Perez vs. Asuka and Tyler Bate & The Brawling Brutes vs. Gallus in a Pub Rules Match.

AEW has dubbed tonight’s episode “Title Tuesday” to accentuate the change in day and the fact that titles are involved in several matches. Their full announced line-up:

• Rey Fenix vs. Jon Moxley – AEW International Championship
• Adam Copeland vs. Luchasaurus
• Saraya vs. Hikaru Shida – AEW Women’s World Championship
• Jay White vs. Hangman Adam Page
• Swerve Strickland vs. Bryan Danielson – #1 Contenders Match for TNT Championship
• Powerhouse Hobbs vs. Chris Jericho
• MJF and Christian Cage are also advertised

In our Twitter/X poll, we asked for predictions on who would win the ratings battle tonight. Nearly 87 percent are predicting NXT wins and only 23 percent are predicting a Dynamite win.

Which show do you think will draw a larger overall viewership tonight?AEW Dynamite wide margin #NXT #AEW

— Pro Wrestling Torch (@PWTorch) October 10, 2023

However, we also asked what show people plan to watch. More people are indicating they plan to watch Dynamite than NXT by a 49 percent to 37 percent margin, with 14 percent saying they’re switching back and forth. Since Dynamite is on a different night than usual, and since NXT outdrew Dynamite last week in total viewers (but not the key 18-40 demo, it should be noted), it’s encouraging for AEW if this poll response is indicative of viewers’ plans tonight. In our poll, 6.3 percent said they usually watch NXT on Tuesday but will be watching Dynamite instead. That could be the difference-maker, despite WWE loading up the show with big names from Raw.

In tonight's AEW vs. NXT Tuesday battle, what are you watching (vote only if watching)…

— Pro Wrestling Torch (@PWTorch) October 10, 2023

So even though most people indicate they plan to watch Dynamite, more say they think NXT will outdraw Dynamite.

The 15 percent who are switching between shows could determine the ultimately viewership winner, so the content of the actual show could help. The first 30 minutes of both shows will be commercial free.

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